Will the Crypto Market Crash If the U.S. Joins the Iran-Israel War?

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The crypto market is once again on edge, and this time, it’s not about regulations or interest rates — it’s about war. As tensions heat up between Israel and Iran, a new fear is emerging: What if the United States gets directly involved?

So, how will the crypto market react if the US joins the Israel-Iran War?

U.S. Entry Could Make Things Worse

If the U.S. steps into the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, things could get much worse for global markets, especially crypto. With American troops already placed in the Middle East and rising concerns about Iran’s nuclear goal, this could turn into a large-scale geopolitical crisis.

Already, U.S. President Donald Trump has called on people living in Tehran, Iran’s capital, to leave the city immediately.

Posting this on Truth Social, Trump said Iran should have agreed to the deal he once proposed, calling the situation a “waste of human life.” He firmly stated, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

62% Odds: U.S. May Join War

On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, the chances of U.S. military action against Iran before August surged by 36% in just one day, now standing at 62%.

At the same time, the Israel-Iran conflict is spreading online. Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, was recently hacked, losing $48 million in USDT. 

A cyber group linked to Israel, known as Gonjeshke Darande or “Predatory Sparrow,” has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Bitcoin To See 10% – 20% Drop, If!

A U.S. entry would likely trigger a fresh wave of panic selling in the crypto world. Experts warn Bitcoin could quickly lose 10% to 20% of its value, dragging down Ethereum and other altcoins along with it. 

We already got a taste of that in June, when Israeli strikes caused Bitcoin to dip 4.5% in one day, wiping out billions in market value. Even the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped from 65 to 48.

Still Hope — If Ceasefire Happens

Not all is doom and gloom. If a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough happens, Bitcoin has the potential to bounce back within weeks, just like it did after the Russia-Ukraine war escalated. 

But until then, the market is likely to remain fragile.