What’s next for Iran and the Middle East?

Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired Israeli brigadier general, leads the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He formerly headed the research division of the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence directorate and was the director-general of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs.

For more than a decade, the world has been discussing what to do about Iran’s nuclear program. But now, after Israel’s preemptive assault on the country’s nuclear facilities — and the U.S. strikes on nuclear plants in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan — Tehran’s stranglehold on the Middle East has vastly loosened, and the specter of a nuclear arms race in the region greatly diminished.

The big question is: How does this attack on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programs shape what comes after the ceasefire?

A little background first, though — namely, an explanation of why Israel struck when it did.

Israel has long made its vociferous objections to Iran’s nuclear ambitions clear. In 2012, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu memorably drew a red line on a diagram of a bomb in front of the U.N. General Assembly. And a few years later, in 2015, I, along with the other members of the Israeli team meeting the U.S. administration ahead of its negotiations with Iran, warned of the dangers posed by allowing the country to continue enriching uranium.

All that time, Israeli leaders chose not to carry out a preemptive strike. But two major changes have happened since then.

Firstly, Iran significantly ramped up the development of its military nuclear program, accumulating enough highly enriched uranium to possibly produce fissile material for at least 10 nuclear bombs within the span of months. More recently, it also expedited its production rate of highly enriched uranium and started preparations for weaponizing it — as well as developing an ambitious plan to significantly increase the production of its long-range ballistic missiles.

Even the slow-moving International Atomic Energy Agency, after 20 years, finally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.

The other major change is that since the attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel underwent a paradigm shift in its thinking on national security — particularly regarding Iran. After two direct Iranian missile attacks in 2024, and nearly two years of assaults from its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, the country felt the Islamic Republic had made every effort to execute its oft-stated mission of wiping Israel off the map.

So, still reeling from Oct. 7, and with Iranian nuclear development on the rise, Israel was no longer willing to accept Tehran’s nuclear or ballistic missile programs as something it must take for granted.

Meanwhile, one of the biggest obstacles to Israel’s efforts to thwart the regime’s nuclear ambitions — its air defenses — was lifted too. Israel’s airstrikes on Iran in October 2024 and the current conflict have given it air dominance over Tehran.

Altogether, this is what led to the Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, which have badly damaged the country’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile program and air defenses.

They’ve also shown the Iranian people that the regime’s costly projects could be challenged, potentially laying the groundwork for other forces in Iran to overthrow the ayatollahs. | Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

The Iranian nuclear threat has essentially been sidelined in the short term — as a result of the destruction of its nuclear facilities and raw material — and in the long term, as there’s no longer any question as to whether Iran would face a credible military threat from both Israel and the U.S. if it attempted to rebuild.

Its previous role as the chief exporter of fundamentalist terrorism has been weakened by these developments too. The deterrence posed by Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas had already been degraded since late 2023, no longer factoring into Israel’s decision to attack. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria further weakened Hezbollah, making it difficult for Iran to resupply it with weapons. And now, Hamas has been left unsupported in Gaza.

Together, Israel and the U.S. have dramatically — and swiftly — reshaped the Middle East.

They’ve shown they’re aligned on the importance of using force if needed, even without the support of other countries. They’ve also shown the Iranian people that the regime’s costly projects could be challenged, potentially laying the groundwork for other forces in Iran to overthrow the ayatollahs.

The next step now is for leaders around the world to build on this momentum and push for a nuclear deal with a much-weakened Tehran. A deal where Iran agrees to stop pursuing a nuclear program in exchange for the gradual lifting of sanctions, and any Iranian commitments are carefully monitored to make sure it doesn’t resume its efforts to become a nuclear state.

The assault on Iran’s nuclear and missile sites has vastly improved the chances of normalized Israel-Arab relations, as well as a more stable Middle East. It’s an achievement that shouldn’t be underestimated — but it’s not the end of the road either.