Von der Leyen vs. Weber: The EU’s climate fight reaches its endgame

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BRUSSELS — Ursula von der Leyen’s under-attack climate mission needs rescuing by the very man who’s made a sport of shredding her green agenda: Manfred Weber, her political frenemy.

He’s not rushing to its defense.

On Tuesday, a parliamentary “fuck-up” — in the words of one lawmaker — left the EU’s 2040 climate target, a cornerstone of the European Commission president’s climate plans, in the hands of those who seek to destroy it.

The far-right Patriots for Europe won a bidding war to steer the European Parliament’s deliberations on the proposal, with the explicit goal of weakening or blocking the legislation.

Now, the center-right European People’s Party — of which Weber and von der Leyen are two of the most powerful members — holds the swing vote on whether the bloc will pursue ambitious emissions cuts in the coming decade. But von der Leyen and Weber are increasingly pulling in opposite directions.

Their divergence was on display Monday when the pair made back-to-back speeches in Parliament defending von der Leyen’s record as the top EU executive before a no-confidence vote (which she won easily on Thursday).

Von der Leyen touted her green agenda.

“We are delivering an ambitious program that this house voted on,” she told lawmakers. That includes “sticking to our climate targets.”

Weber then touted his attacks on that same green agenda, calling them an expression of democratic differences between parties. He even sideswiped a von der Leyen-backed greenwashing bill, dubbing it a “bureaucratic monster.”

Headed for conflict

These tensions are nothing new. While von der Leyen has stood by the Green Deal she helped erect, Weber, who leads both the EPP’s parliamentary group and its EU-wide party, has now spent years trying to stamp out what he views as environmental excesses.

His campaign has intensified since last year’s European election, which tilted the Parliament to the right and elevated Green Deal skeptics within the EPP.

Von der Leyen has sought to accommodate some of Weber’s concerns, especially regarding nature laws, corporate regulation, and specific industrial sectors like the automotive industry, which are core to the interests of Germany — where they both come from.

But the Patriots’ power grab strikes at the very heart of von der Leyen’s project, the climate targets that she has repeatedly vowed to protect. It’s not clear, however, that Weber is on board.

“In our meetings, there’s always criticism — she’s not understood anything, she changed nothing — that’s of course not true. But Ursula … is of the opinion that we don’t have to abolish everything we did in the last mandate,” said one EPP official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to disclose internal group discussions.

“Manfred, he always says that we are ambitious, but realistic. What that actually means is often difficult to discern,” the official added.

Neither Weber nor von der Leyen responded to requests for comment.

“Politics is about majorities. No one knows this better than Manfred Weber,” a second EPP official said. “He knows we can only fight climate change if the people are on board. … Climate policy is a top priority for the EPP.”

The official added: “We are saving the Green Deal with ambition and pragmatism — both belong together. Weber and von der Leyen are a great team. They won the elections together in 2024 and have shaped the European policy agenda ever since.”

Von der Leyen wants the EU to commit to reducing its carbon footprint by approximately 90 percent by 2040. The contentious proposal requires the assent of the European Parliament and governments.

Getting EU capitals to agree is the more immediate challenge for the Commission. Two weeks ago, von der Leyen faced down an attempt by French President Emmanuel Macron to pause the law. But the Parliament will get involved in the fall.

In the coming months, the fate of the 2040 target — and by extension the core of the European Green Deal and the EU’s climate mission — will depend largely on whether Weber can or will rally his fractious members and help push the proposal through.

Weber has never disavowed the climate mission. He only insists that it be revised to respond to industry demands and to reduce the EPP’s political exposure to the far right, which wants to topple the whole green edifice.

But one EPP lawmaker said some inside the party viewed Weber’s project as “his personal mission, the war against Ursula.” (In 2019, Weber unsuccessfully ran for the Commission presidency, which EU governments eventually handed to von der Leyen.)

“He’s trying to push the Commission between the wall and wallpaper and trying to make von der Leyen look weak,” the lawmaker said.

Auctioning off the climate?

Some groups tried to blame the EPP for allowing the Patriots to snatch the lead on the 2040 legislation, which was determined through a points-based auction where points were assigned by group size. The EPP, as the largest Parliament group, could easily have outbid the Patriots, the third-largest force, they argued.

But both the EPP and the Socialists and Democrats, Parliament’s second-largest group, were capable of outbidding the Patriots. Both dropped out over concerns that they would not have enough points left over to win the lead on upcoming laws that are more important to them than the 2040 target.

“No one fought for it,” said one MEP. Two other people involved in the discussions said the centrist groups had simply failed to coordinate — “a fuck-up, not a strategy,” said one the two people.

Siegfried Mureșan, an EPP vice president, said he was unsure how the Patriots pulled off their coup. But he dismissed fears that they could derail or slow walk the legislation.

“If a rapporteur is trying to block a file or impose things against the will of a majority, they wouldn’t succeed,” he said, using the term for the lead MEP on a bill.

Italian MEP Silvia Sardone, the Patriots’ climate coordinator who bid for the file, did not respond to repeated requests for comment. Neither did a spokesperson for the group. Patriots’ chair Jordan Bardella on Tuesday said the group opposed the 2040 target and would “assert our vision” through the leadership role.

While the lead MEP auction might have been a screw-up, on Wednesday the EPP joined right-wing forces to veto a last-ditch effort to fast-track the target and mitigate the Patriots’ influence.

The EPP lawmaker stated there were more than 30 center-right MEPs who would have voted to accelerate the process but were too afraid of being punished. “You are sanctioned afterward to prevent these people from acting. No speaking time, no positions,” the lawmaker said.

In a statement, the EPP insisted it was committed to the target. It only wanted to ensure that countries formed their own proposal first, and those negotiations are just beginning.

The Socialists and Greens criticized this move, arguing it would leave the Parliament to merely rubber-stamp the position of EU governments. MEPs often reach an agreement before capitals do.

Once countries present their preferred approach, the EPP could support a fast-track motion, according to an EPP whip note seen by POLITICO.

But Wednesday’s rejection seemed like a blatant snub of von der Leyen’s program. Centrist and left-wing lawmakers called on the Commission president to stand up for their shared climate priorities, rather than allowing Weber to continually side with the far right.

Even some within the party feel that the power struggle between the EPP’s two big beasts is in the balance.

Weber’s “favorite phrase,” said the EPP lawmaker, “is, this is our time.”

Sarah Wheaton contributed reporting from Strasbourg, France.

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