Trump’s political offensive on European allies will have long-lasting consequences

Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, is CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and host of the weekly podcast “World Review with Ivo Daalder.” He writes POLITICO’s From Across the Pond column.

In the next few weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with America’s main allies for the first time since returning to office. On Sunday, he flew to Canada for the annual G7 meeting, and later this month, he’ll go to the Netherlands for the annual NATO Summit.

At both meetings, America’s allies will try to placate him on issues ranging from trade and security to the preservation of these forums as a means of coordination and cooperation in the face of critical challenges. And while Trump regularly sought to blow up such meetings in his first term, allies are growing confident they’ve done enough to avoid mishaps this time around.

Even if these meetings proceed without incident, however, they’d be wrong to assume all is right and well in their relations with the U.S. The global environment has fundamentally shifted since Trump’s return five months ago. Most crucially, he and his administration have begun a wholesale assault on the economic, political and security foundations of Washington’s relationship with longstanding allies.

Let’s start with security. Trump has made clear he doesn’t believe that U.S. security and that of its allies is indivisible — a core principle that’s guided U.S. engagement over the past 80 years. And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has emphasized that NATO’s European members need “to take ownership of conventional security in Europe.”

In other words, Europe’s security is no longer viewed as a joint responsibility.

The same is true for the war in Ukraine, which Trump had promised to end in a day. “This was a European situation, and should have remained a European situation,” he said last month after another disappointing call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In fact, Trump’s “America First” approach to security even extends to Canada, a neighbor and NATO member, which he promised to help defend only if it became America’s 51st state — this, despite the fact given the laws of geography, any attack on Canada would pose a dire threat to the U.S.

In fact, Donald Trump urged Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine by promising increased trade. | Pool Photo by Sergey Bobylev via EPA

Next, there’s the economy, and on that front, Trump has long made clear he views America’s closest allies as countries that have taken advantage of it for decades. He believes the German and Japanese auto industries have succeeded largely because of unfair trade that disadvantages U.S. car exports. He thinks Canada is undermining America’s steel, dairy and lumber industries. He sees trade deficits as proof of unfair competition. He also argues that “the European Union was formed to screw the United States.”

Trump’s singular answer to all these problems is tariffs — “the most beautiful word in the world.” He invoked national security as a justification for 50 percent tariffs on steel imports from Canada, Europe and elsewhere; 25 percent tariffs on autos and auto parts; and threatened to do the same with pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports. He also levied an across-the-board 10 percent tariff on all imports, while promising to raise these to 20 percent or more, unless new trade deals are agreed by July 9.

Interestingly, while China and other countries that aren’t allied with the U.S. have also been targeted with tariffs, Russia has been spared such levies. In fact, Trump urged Putin to end the war in Ukraine by promising increased trade.

That’s right. Russia — a true threat to European security — is being offered what Trump called a “tremendous” opportunity for massive growth.

Finally, while it might not have the most immediate impact, it’s the Trump administration’s political offensive on its allies — and especially against Europe — that will have long-lasting consequences.

It started with Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in February, where he warned a stunned audience that “the threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China,” but “the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values.” It didn’t escape many in the room that this language was what German leaders used in the 1930s to accuse Jews and others of treachery.

This attack on European values has escalated ever since. Top administration officials have openly sided with far-right forces in Germany, Romania and Poland in the run-up to national elections. Then, when the German domestic intelligence agency classified the far-right Alternative for Germany party as an extremist organization, Secretary of State Marco Rubio took to X to complain: “This is not democracy—it’s tyranny in disguise.”

To top it off, late last month, the State Department published an essay accusing Europeans of waging “an aggressive campaign against Western civilization itself.” “The suppression of speech, facilitation of mass migration, targeting of religious expression, and undermining of electoral choice threatens the very foundation of the transatlantic partnership,” the author proclaimed.

It was a stunning rebuke — especially coming from an administration engaging in the mass deportation of immigrants, cutting funds to fight hunger and disease around the world, weaponizing claims of antisemitism to target universities, ignoring judicial rulings and creating loyalty tests for government employment while pressuring the media to toe the line.

This is a fundamental shift in how the U.S. now views its allies. And though keeping Trump onside during the G7 and NATO summits will be important, erstwhile allies in North America, Europe and Asia would do well to spend time coordinating their response to his administration’s wholesale assault on their long-standing partnership.