Polish presidential election exit poll shows a dead heat

WARSAW — Centrist Rafał Trzaskowski was very slightly ahead of his populist rival Karol Nawrocki in Poland’s presidential election, according to an exit poll released after voting ended Sunday evening, leading by 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent.

However, that is within the exit poll’s 2 percentage point margin of error, so it is impossible to say who the winner is. A clearer picture will emerge when an updated poll by the IPSOS organization is released at 11:30 p.m. The electoral commission says final results of the vote count will be announced on Monday.

A different exit poll for the right-wing TV Republika showed Trzaskowski ahead by even a smaller margin of 50.17 percent to 49.83 percent.

If the result holds and Trzaskowski is the winner, it would be a big victory for Trzaskowski’s party boss, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and his effort to continue reintegrating Poland into the EU.

Despite the uncertainty over the outcome, Trzaskowski was treating it as a victory.

“‘Razor-thin’ is going to enter the Polish language as a phrase now,” he told cheering supporters moments after the exit poll was released, adding: “I would like to thank all Poles for their votes … I hope we can now move forward like a torpedo and think about the future.”

“If everything is confirmed we will immediately get to work,” he said.

But Nawrocki wasn’t giving up. “We will win tonight,” he told his supporters. “We will win and save Poland!”

Karol Nawrocki aims to pull Poland away from the European mainstream in a more populist direction. | Wojtek Jargilo/EPA

“We will win, that difference is really so tiny,” he said as his supporters chanted: “Karol Nawrocki, the president of Poland.”

Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and also by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, aims to pull Poland away from the European mainstream in a more populist direction.

Trzaskowski has promised to work closely with the Tusk government, allowing it to push through a legislative agenda currently blocked by incumbent President Andrzej Duda, allied with PiS.

“With a president from the same camp, Tusk’s coalition could finally pass long-promised reforms, provided the four-party coalition can agree on them internally,” said Joanna Sawicka, a political analyst with Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based think tank. “Key issues like abortion law liberalization may still face significant hurdles in parliament, even with the presidency secured.” 

Nawrocki battled a cascade of revelations about his past ranging from accusations that he helped arrange prostitutes for guests of a luxury hotel while working as a security guard, to taking part in fights as a football hooligan and acquiring an apartment from a pensioner under questionable circumstances.

Conservative voters strongly backed Nawrocki, worried about Trzaskowski’s liberal record as mayor of Warsaw, where he supported LGBTQ+ rights and was out of step with the powerful Roman Catholic Church hierarchy. 

This article has been updated.