Europe is holding its breath: Will the Netherlands swing left or maintain its rightward course?

The Dutch head to the polls Wednesday for a vote that could cement the far right as the most popular political party in the Netherlands — and expose the wider struggle European centrists face to beat back anti-establishment forces.

But even if anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders wins the election, as current opinion polls suggest he might, he is short of allies and has next to no chance of becoming prime minister, or even being in government — likely setting off a scramble to form a coalition that excludes the far right.

The last Dutch government was in office for less than a year — 336 days to be exact — before it collapsed, triggering the third election in five years, as the Netherlands struggles to govern itself.

To get you prepared for more drama, we’ve compiled this essential guide to everything you need to know ahead of the big reveal Wednesday evening.

Who’s running?

Twenty-seven parties spanning the political spectrum will be competing for 150 seats in parliament, and a chance at having one of their own appointed as Dutch prime minister.

When do we get the results?

Polls open Wednesday at 7:30 a.m. CET and close at 9 p.m.

Exit polls are announced as soon as voting ends — and around midnight, national news agency ANP publishes preliminary results. Figures per municipality will trickle in over the course of the evening, and final results can be expected the next day.

What should I watch out for?

The main question is not just whether Dutch voters will lean left or right, but also which of the many competing parties on each side they’ll go for.

Whether supporters of the far-right populist Party for Freedom (PVV) will stick with founder Geert Wilders, shift to another hard-right or right-wing party, or stay home altogether will be critical.

In short: it’s a political battle royal.

What are the polls saying? 

For weeks, polls have suggested that the PVV will come out on top — while its former coalition partner, the center-right liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), is lagging.

The centrist D66 is having a real moment, with all eyes on its leader Rob Jetten, who is giving the large traditional parties a run for their money in his bid to become the party’s first prime minister in Dutch history.

In a tightly contested election, the Christian Democratic Appeal’s down-to-earth Henri Bontenbal is another candidate who has been floated as the potential next prime minister — given no one wants to team up with Wilders — a prospect that would’ve shocked anyone watching two years ago when voters ditched the conservative CDA en masse

Green-Left Labor, led by veteran politician Frans Timmermans, is also in the mix.

But as the Dutch say: Don’t sell the hide before the bear is shot. In the last election, most voters didn’t make up their minds until the final moments. This means that for Wilders especially, turnout will be critical.

No matter what his result, he is expected to be frozen out of coalition talks, having burned too many bridges in The Hague. If he wins the most votes but is still sidelined from government, he’s likely to use it as ammunition to argue his followers are being ignored and Dutch democracy is dead.

A recap

The Dutch are still reeling from the electoral earthquake that upended the political landscape in 2023, when Wilders’ PVV won the most votes for the first time ever. 

After decades of being politically sidelined for its anti-Islam, anti-immigrant and anti-establishment standpoints, the PVV was suddenly at the center of the most right-wing government in modern Dutch history. 

To form a coalition, it teamed up with three other forces right of center, including the VVD and two smaller newcomer parties.

But from Day One, the alliance was plagued by infighting and public drama worthy of a soap opera. And Wilders, considered too toxic for the post of prime minister, criticized his own coalition relentlessly from the parliament benches.

And since we’re already dragging up old cows out of the ditch (Nederglish for bringing up old grievances) …

… the (most recent) collapse

That brings us to this past June, when Wilders suddenly quit the coalition, arguing it wasn’t strict enough on migration despite the fact that the asylum and migration minister wore a PVV badge.

The question now is: Will Dutch voters opt for stability by moving back to the center, or will they forgive Wilders for triggering a political meltdown and opt for more far-right disruption?

For weeks, polls have suggested that the PVV will be the big winner. | Carl Court/Getty Images

The answer could have wide-ranging repercussions. 

In a September report, the group Democracy Monitor warned of “urgent” democratic backsliding in the Netherlands, citing, among other factors, increased support for authoritarian leadership styles and declining public trust in politics overall. 

What are the campaign issues? 

Unsurprisingly, after the last two Cabinets collapsed over migration, limiting the number of asylum-seekers in the Netherlands is a central topic.

One one end of the spectrum, the PVV is calling for a complete asylum ban (which goes against EU rules); while, on the other side, Green-Left Labor proposes a refugee quota and cooperation with Brussels. 

Other major matters dominating the debate include housing, health care and — to a lesser extent — the climate. There is broad agreement on raising defense spending to the NATO target of 5 percent of gross domestic product, though parties disagree on exactly how to finance this increase.

Overall, the campaign has been rather tepid. VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz took on a cursing Wilders in a game of Mario Kart; D66’s Rob Jetten showed off his IQ in a TV game show; and CDA’s Bontenbal tried to charm online voters with a video of him making a his own kapsalon. 

But the temperature has risen somewhat in the last few days, with Timmermans threatening legal action after media linked PVV parliamentarians to an AI-driven attack against him online, while rising star Jetten was reprimanded by a TV host for making a “sexist” remark about a Dutch princess.

So, will the Dutch have a new leader the day after the vote? 

Ha! No. 

The election result is only the starting gun for a long and convoluted negotiation process that rivals the choosing of a new pope.

First, a scout is appointed to explore which parties could work together based on their electoral result and their views (a majority coalition requires 76 seats). Then, the baton is passed to a so-called informateur, who takes the talks a step further and draws up a preliminary coalition agreement. 

45,000 demonstrators marched demanding the Dutch government improve its policy on climate change, just three days before the Dutch general election. | Charles M. Vella/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Finally, the informateur is replaced with a formateur, who is usually also the next prime minister, and who divvies up various ministries across the coalition parties.

Once the Cabinet is assembled, they pay a traditional visit to the Dutch King and — voilà—white smoke.

When will we know what the next government will look like? 

That is anyone’s guess. The last Cabinet formation took 223 days.

The all-time record stands at 299 days. (If that makes your jaw drop, we kindly refer you to neighboring Belgium, where the record is 541 days.) 

If we Dutch people can manage it, you won’t have to read another one of these again until the next planned election — in four years. 

Koen Verhelst contributed to this report.