Friedrich Merz’s cabinet: Who will lead Germany’s key ministries?

BERLIN — Incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives and their Social Democratic Party (SPD) counterparts have struck a coalition deal, but party leaders haven’t revealed who will lead key ministries in the next government.

That hasn’t stopped the rumor mill in Berlin from feverishly speculating about the composition of the incoming cabinet. We have some good indications of who the main contenders are, however, particularly since the coalition blueprint lays out which party gets each ministry.

Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is set to take the foreign and economy ministries, while the SPD will have control of finance and defense. The interior ministry will fall the the CDU’s Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

Here’s a shortlist of likely candidates for some of Berlin’s key ministerial posts.

Foreign ministry

Johann Wadephul

A veteran CDU lawmaker and deputy parliamentary group leader focusing on foreign and defense policy, Wadephul has longstanding ties to Washington and Brussels and is seen as the most likely pick for a foreign ministry post. In a very male-dominated future cabinet, his appointment would mark a shift back to more conventional style of diplomacy following the tenure of outgoing Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who championed a “feminist foreign policy.”

Johann Wadephul | Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

Armin Laschet

The former CDU leader and premier of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia has remained active in international forums and is seen as seeking a high-level foreign-facing role. His appointment would represent something of a political comeback after his party’s historic loss in 2021, when Laschet was its chancellor candidate.

Jens Spahn

Currently a CDU deputy parliamentary group leader, Spahn is not a foreign policy specialist, but his strong U.S. network, particularly his ties to Republicans, is seen as an asset. Spahn attended the Republican National Convention last year and is being mentioned as a more unconventional option given Merz’s need to forge links to the Trump administration.

Defense ministry

Boris Pistorius

Pistorius consistently ranks as one of Germany’s most popular politicians and is widely expected to keep his current role as defense minister.

SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz selected Pistorius to become his defense minister nearly a year after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Pistorius was then seen as an unusual choice, as he had no national leadership experience. But he has since earned the respect and admiration of politicians on both sides of the political spectrum at home, and of many of his NATO counterparts abroad. Pistorius, who has a relatively hawkish stance on Ukraine and has tried to modernize Germany’s armed forces to make them “fit for war,” has said he wants to keep the job.

Finance ministry

Lars Klingbeil

Klingbeil, currently co-leader of the SPD, is considered one of the party’s most disciplined communicators and a key figure in steering it through its post-Scholz transition. He’s also seen as the most likely choice for the powerful post of finance minister. Klingbeil took a leading role for his party during coalition negotiations, and while he doesn’t have the technocratic skillset of other candidates for the post, his appointment would give the SPD influence and control over the purse strings just as the country is set to unleash hundreds of billions of euros in new spending for defense and infrastructure.

Lars Klingbeil | Maja Hitij/Getty Images

Jörg Kukies

Kukies, a longtime close adviser to Scholz, took the post of interim finance minister after Scholz’s fractious three-party coalition collapsed in November. Kukies is a seasoned technocrat and former Goldman Sachs executive who has taken a higher profile in recent weeks, including a recent visit to Washington. He’s an outside choice should the SPD opt for continuity and a proven track record.

Economy ministry

Carsten Linnemann

Linnemann is the CDU’s policy chief and one of Merz’s closest allies, widely credited with shaping the party’s economic agenda in recent years. An economist by training, Linnemann has built his profile as a champion of deregulation, fiscal discipline and supply-side reform, marking a clear departure from the approach of the outgoing economy minister, Robert Habeck of the Greens, who championed decarbonization and state-led industrial transformation.

Interior ministry

Alexander Dobrindt

A longtime CSU figure and former transport minister, Dobrindt is known for his hardline rhetoric on migration and policing, making him a good fit for implementing Merz’s promised migration crackdown. His leadership would likely bring a more populist, law-and-order tone to the ministry.

Rasmus Buchsteiner contributed reporting.