European leaders warn Putin’s talk of peace is a mirage

NEW DELHI — As United States President Donald Trump pushes ceasefire talks with Russia, top European officials gathering for a security conference on the other side of the world warned that Vladimir Putin isn’t actually interested in any meaningful peace deal. 

“There’s not a single indicator that Russia wants peace,” Baiba Braže, Latvia’s foreign minister said.

“We assess with absolute certainty that Russia has not changed any of its goals, that Putin continues to want all of Ukraine, all of it, total domination,” said Jonatan Vseviov, secretary-general of Estonia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

These warnings underscore a deep sense of unease in European capitals over how far Trump, who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker, can actually get in clinching a viable peace deal with Putin.

After the Trump-Putin call, the White House said the two sides agreed that a “movement to peace” will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, meaning a halt to the attacks that are hurting both economies. However, there was no deal on a 30-day ceasefire, which will be the subject of talks beginning “immediately” in the Middle East.

In the Russian readout of the conversation, Putin demanded an end to mobilization in Ukraine and the rearmament of the Ukrainian military, calling  for “the complete cessation of foreign military aid and intelligence sharing.” 

Braže and Vseviov were among dozens of top European defense officials and diplomats who flocked to a major security and development conference in India this week, where the Russia-Ukraine war dominated the agenda. India has maintained close ties with both the West and Russia, giving it outsized influence as an intermediary between the rival powers as both sides assess a possible peace deal. 

At the Raisina Dialogue conference in New Delhi, European leaders warned that a poorly negotiated peace deal would backfire. 

“Now is the time to make sure that there is a long-lasting and fair deal that does not provide room for Russia to only grow stronger and attack again, and win again,” said Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard. 

Both NATO and Russian officials attended the conference, though none met publicly or spoke alongside one another on the conference stage.

Part of the fear among European officials is that Russia may try to extract onerous demands on Ukraine and its Western backers to even start serious talks.

The pressure to hold talks comes as Russia successfully pushed Ukrainian troops out of most of the Kursk salient captured in last summer’s surprise counteroffensive. | Justin Tallis/Getty Images

“There is a certain wariness, at least, that too much will be given in order to get the Russians to the table,” said Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide. “And of course, they know very well how to play this game, and they will pocket that. And then it’s no longer any achievement, because they take what they get.”

The other lingering worry is that Putin will outsmart Trump.

“Putin has been doing this for decades. So he’s not to be underestimated,” Estonia’s Vseviov said. “He’s very good at manipulating public opinion and Western leaders. So we should be very, very cautious when dealing with people like Putin,” Vseviov added. “Plus, he’s a trained KGB officer.”

Supporting Trump

Notably, none of the European officials directly criticized Trump for trying to engage with Putin. Some Europeans heaped praise on the U.S. president, despite the strains he has put on the transatlantic relationship after castigating NATO allies, talking about annexing Greenland and Canada, and a fiery Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that shocked much of the world.

“I’m grateful to the Americans and to President Trump, as weird as this may sound, that they keep trying. Because we Europeans have so utterly failed at doing that. It should’ve been us,” said Benedikt Franke, vice chairman and CEO of the Munich Security Conference.

“At the end of the day, this is the closest we have come to negotiations and it’s due to the current administration, we have to acknowledge that even if we don’t like the style and even if we don’t like some of the content.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha joined the conference in India, where he touted progress that Kyiv made with the U.S. side during recent talks in Saudi Arabia. There, the Ukrainians agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire to start negotiations if the Russians complied. 

“We’d really expect from the Russian side an unconditional ‘yes’ for the ceasefire,” Sybiha said, when asked about what he hoped would come from the Trump-Putin call. 

Russian officials attending the conference, speaking before the results of the call were known, accurately predicted that Putin would likely push for more concessions before agreeing to any short-term ceasefire. Putin “doesn’t want a ceasefire in itself because what we need is lasting peace and security guarantees for Russia,” said Vyacheslav Nikonov, a member of the Russian state Duma, who avoided acknowledging that Russia started the war with its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. 

He added it was unlikely Putin would agree to allow Ukraine to continue to be armed by the U.S. during any 30-day ceasefire.

Talking to Putin

Other European officials saw a silver lining in more Trump-Putin calls, now that the onus is on Russia to agree to a ceasefire. “The ball is in Putin’s court and he really hates that,” said Władysław Bartoszewski, the deputy Polish foreign minister. “President Trump’s patience is somewhat limited, so [Russia] may get a surprise.”

Bartoszewski said other European leaders have learned the hard way of the limited upside in engaging with Putin.

After the Trump-Putin call, the White House said the two sides agreed that a “movement to peace” will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire. | Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

He pointed to a flurry of calls between French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “We were very annoyed. I mean, seriously annoyed when Macron kept talking to Putin. He probably spoke to him 20 times.”

Flash forward three years and Macron is leading European talks on boosting defense spending and discussions on extending France’s nuclear deterrent to other NATO allies.

“It is good for Trump to talk to Putin in the same way that Macron did. He will learn how Putin works,” Bartoszewski said

The pressure to hold talks comes as Russia successfully pushed Ukrainian troops out of most of the Kursk salient captured in last summer’s surprise counteroffensive — an effort helped when Trump cut off military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after the catastrophic White House meeting with Zelenskyy.

Russia is also continuing to press along the front line with Ukraine, although its progress has been marginal in recent weeks. 

The prospect of years of bloody war is prompting some to feel that a bad peace deal for Ukraine is better than no deal at all.

“In a shit situation, a peace deal may actually be uncomfortable for the Ukrainians. But it may save them more in the long run,” said Franke.