Europe must choose: Invest in fear or in the future

Begüm Zorlu is a research fellow at City, University of London (St George’s). Gülseren Onanç is a visiting fellow at the School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute. Ediz Topcuoğlu is a doctoral researcher at the European University Institute.

When NATO leaders proposed raising defense spending to 5 percent of GDP during their last summit — a dramatic increase from the previous 2 percent benchmark — only Spain questioned the wisdom of such a shift.

But in the shadow of war and insecurity, there’s another question we should be asking: Is militarization the only form of defense Europe needs?

For most Europeans, daily threats don’t come in the shape of missiles, rather in the form of skyrocketing rents, unaffordable childcare and failing public transport. Across Europe, the cost of living is rising, and public services are stretched. Yet, it’s defense that dominates the agenda.

And while Europe is rightly alarmed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and broader threats to its territorial sovereignty, ramping up military budgets in the face of flatlining social spending is a risky trade-off.

A strategy that sidelines social resilience in favor of hard power risks weakening the very cohesion it aims to defend. Authoritarianism doesn’t thrive solely on foreign threats; it grows when democracies fail to deliver on bread-and-butter issues. And a society frayed by housing shortages, decaying infrastructure and eroding public trust can’t be held together by arsenals alone.

Let’s consider, for example, the most recent lesson in “social security” that came by way of New York City, where Zohran Mamdani — who is part of a new generation of democratic socialists — won his primary. Mamdani openly embraced policies that would terrify Europe’s neoliberal mainstream: free transit, universal childcare, rent controls and wealth taxes. But many New Yorkers didn’t dismiss his platform as radical. They embraced it.

Even in a city so closely associated with capitalism, the promise of a public good resonates. And if such a vision can take root in New York, imagine its potential in European cities like Naples, Marseilles or Athens.

As the cradle of the welfare state, Europe should be leading on welfare innovation. It should be investing in what makes societies worth defending: affordable housing, quality education, resilient local government and good healthcare.

Local democracy, in particular, is a forgotten frontline against authoritarianism. In Turkey, for example, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government has increasingly been targeting opposition mayors, turning the protection of municipal autonomy into a rallying cry for the democratic opposition.

Starting with the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in March, Erdoğan has stepped up his campaign of repression, arresting more than a dozen opposition mayors on politically motivated or unsubstantiated charges. Yet, across the bloc, the response to these politically motivated prosecutions remained muted.

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government has increasingly been targeting opposition mayors, turning the protection of municipal autonomy into a rallying cry for the democratic opposition. | Necati Savas/EPA

While Brussels and many national governments kept quiet, however, Europe’s mayors raised their voices, proving that cities are the moral heart of our nations. Led by former Florence Mayor and current MEP Dario Nardella, city mayors in Paris, Berlin and Budapest broke the silence and stood up for democratic values.

Closer to citizens and less tainted by the perceived need to placate authoritarian leaders like Erdoğan, local governments are the ones defending democracy where other leaders are faltering. Europe must empower them not just as administrators but as agents of democratic renewal.

“Social Europe” is a strategy. The bloc has long claimed to blend economic freedom with social justice. But that balance is now under threat, with rising military budgets at risk of swallowing the political and financial capital needed for climate resilience, digital equity, housing access and early childhood care.

Reclaiming the vision of a Social Europe is not a nostalgic dream — it’s an existential necessity. In the 21st century, the battle for hearts and minds won’t be won with tanks, it will be won with trust. And that trust is built on a daily basis by addressing fundamental concerns.

If Brussels seeks to win back trust, it must deliver tangible results that outlast military headlines. This doesn’t mean abandoning military defense entirely. Rather, it’s about recognizing that Europe must maintain its military capabilities for immediate security needs, while its long-term investment must lie in the fabric and resilience of its societies.

Europe’s long-term defense lies in strengthening its social foundations; in restoring participation, dignity and cohesion. And this means defending our cities not just with police and border controls but with policies that make them livable.

Taken from this perspective, the NATO spending debate isn’t just about numbers. It’s about values. It’s about whether Europe will invest in its fears or in a future it wants to defend.