EU fears ‘Franz Ferdinand moment’ with Russia – Politico

Moscow has repeatedly said it has no plans to attack the West, but has voiced concerns that WWIII is being discussed as a feasible scenario

The EU is increasingly wary that tensions with Russia could spill into a major conflict, in a scenario some officials privately liken to the chain reaction following the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand that triggered World War I, Politico reported on Monday.

EU leaders are poised to meet in Copenhagen on Wednesday to discuss ways to contain Russia amid a surge in drone incidents across Europe.

According to Politico, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is pushing for an “unprecedented discussion” of the EU’s military posture, going well beyond the bloc’s usual remit to include projects such as a “drone wall” to neutralize UAVs deemed hostile.

The outlet notes that the summit participants are certain to agree that Russia poses a “threat” to the bloc, and sign up based on the sentiment that “doing nothing… makes all-out war more likely.”

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However, unnamed diplomats told Politico that potential moves to deter Russia are “strewn with potential disasters,” with some officials warning privately of a possible “Franz Ferdinand moment” – a sudden escalation that could drag the continent into conflict. The phrase refers to the 1914 assassination Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which set off a rapid chain of alliances and ultimatums that triggered WWI.

EU military leaders reportedly believe the bloc is already in a “form of low-intensity war with Russia,” adding that historically, wars have been financed with public debt. However, it could prove very difficult to persuade all EU members – some of which are already grappling with economic problems – to expand the bloc’s budget for defense, Politico said.

The heightened caution follows a recent episode in which Warsaw claimed Russian drones violated Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, prompting discussion in NATO about whether the bloc should shoot down intruding jets. Moscow has dismissed Warsaw’s accusations, saying it did not provide any evidence, while denouncing the debates on downing Russian planes as “irresponsible.”

Moscow has on numerous occasions said that “Russia has no intention” to attack NATO while expressing concern over the fact that Western officials “are beginning to seriously talk about a third world war as a potential scenario.”