Corbyn’s comeback: A gift for Farage, ‘a bloody nightmare’ for the Greens

LONDON — A headache for Labour, a “nightmare” for the Greens — and an open goal for Nigel Farage. Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana may be about to hand Reform UK the gift it’s been waiting for.

Last week, Sultana, a suspended left-wing Labour member of parliament with a huge online following, dropped the news on social platform X that she plans to co-lead a new party with the former Labour leader, pitching themselves on full-blooded socialism and opposition to the war in Gaza. When the announcement was made, Reform figures were spotted cheering at a Westminster party — arguing it would slice 10 percent off Labour’s vote share. 

They don’t appear to be wrong. Nine percent of Labour’s current supporters say they would vote for this new party if an election were held tomorrow and the pair were on the ballot, according to polling for More in Common shared with POLITICO.

The data for the progressive polling think tank shows the new party could earn 8 percent of the vote, with Labour’s vote share subsequently dropping by 3 points — from 25 to 22 percent.

“Reform are crowing about it, because they are assuming that this kind of party could be the sort of flip side to what they did to the Conservatives,” said Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “Now they’re assuming that a party like this would split the Labour vote and let them in.” 

Speaking to POLITICO, Reform’s former chairman and new government efficiency chief, Zia Yusuf, was in a bullish mood. “What’s happened to the Tories between the years 2018 to 2024 is now happening to Labour on five times fast-forward,” he said.

The timing is awkward for Labour. Keir Starmer’s government is still reeling from its most bruising few weeks in office: a full-scale backbench mutiny leading to a gutted welfare bill and a fresh black hole in the party’s spending plans.

“Keir Starmer has flip-flopped all over the place,” said Yusuf. “He doesn’t really stand for anything. One cannot reasonably argue that Jeremy Corbyn does not believe in the things that he’s saying, and in the modern age of politics, I don’t think that has ever been more important.” 

The man does have fans

While he led Labour to a catastrophic election defeat in 2019, Corbyn’s cult status is hard to dispute. As leader, the lifelong left-winger’s name echoed from student bars to festival stages — chanted to the tune of the White Stripes’ “Seven Nation Army.” Today, he’s amassed 222,500 followers on TikTok. Sultana has racked up around 477,800 — both comfortably outpacing Starmer’s ghost-town social media presence — if still far behind right-wing populist Farage’s 1.3 million-strong online army. 

“If you were to ask the average voter in the street to name three politicians, they probably would name Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn, and one other,” said Ford. “So he’s a big name.”

Yusuf is no fan of Corbyn’s “socialist bordering on communist” policies — but Reform are rubbing their hands with glee at a potential split on the left. The former Reform chairman said Corbyn in charge is “a horrendous idea for Britain.” 

“But the man does have fans,” Yusuf added. “He’s a formidable politician — far more formidable than Keir Starmer.” 

It all adds up to another “organizational headache” for Labour said Ford, because the government party will have to defend flanks on both sides. Whereas Reform might be winning over disillusioned Red Wall voters in smaller towns, the Corbyn-Sultana duo could pick off the young, urban left —including students, ethnic minorities and Gaza independents. 

To hold that coalition together, Starmer may need to move left on foreign policy or go big on wealth redistribution — but at the risk of driving moderate swing voters straight into Farage’s arms.

Keir Starmer’s government is still reeling from its most bruising few weeks in office. | Pool Photo by Carlos Jasso via EPA

“The party in government is going to be yanked in three or four directions at once,” he explained. “Of course, that’s delightful for Nigel Farage, because he isn’t facing a similar problem. He knows which bit of the space he’s trying to occupy.”

But those on Labour’s moderate wing believe Starmer’s government will hold the line — and has no intention of repeating past mistakes.

Luke Akehurst, MP for North Durham and a prominent Corbyn critic, said appealing to the far left would be “madness” and “the quick route to electoral oblivion.”

“You can’t win a general election on a manifesto that’s about being responsible and center-left and then go, ‘Oh, just because this ex-leader you all hated who then lost us a general election disastrously and we’ve announced as persona non grata because of their proximity to the antisemitism scandal — because he’s got 10 percent of the vote — we’re therefore going to totally change positioning,'” he told POLITICO.

Instead, he argued, Labour’s best bet is to keep reaching those “sat to our right, who are generally distributed a lot more in the marginal seats that we need to win a general election.”

Thunder stolen 

If Labour’s pain is real, spare a thought for the Greens. 

More in Common’s polling found the leftist party would likely see the biggest losses, with 26 percent of their current voters saying they would vote for Sultana and Corbyn’s new party. 

“Many of the voters most likely to be drawn to a Corbyn-led party have already made the jump to the Greens,” explained Louis O’Geran, research associate at More in Common. “That’s why, in this scenario, the Greens — not Labour — would likely lose the most ground.”

“It’s a bloody nightmare for the Greens,” said Ford. The party just chalked up its best-ever general election result and received a series of strong local election results. Although they have capitalized on Labour’s drift to the center, suddenly they’re staring down a big-name rival for that same disaffected left.

“It’s like you were some sort of indie rock band and you were about to get your first big stadium gig — and then Oasis announced they’re going to play the same night right next door,” said Ford. “Corbyn is the big name — he’s the stadium rock act of the progressive left.” 

Reform’s Yusuf added that “most people in this country couldn’t name who the party leader of the Green Party is, with all due respect to them, but most people can obviously name Jeremy Corbyn.”

The Greens’ current co-leader, Adrian Ramsay, is sounding up for the fight. | Tolga Akmen/EPA

The Greens’ current co-leader, Adrian Ramsay, is sounding up for the fight. He dismisses Corbyn and Sultana’s project as “an idea” that might go nowhere. 

“It’s very hard to build a new party from scratch, and the Green Party has got a well-established infrastructure, which we’ve built up over a long period of time,” he said. Ramsay took the opportunity to pitch to Labour deserters, saying “come behind the Green Party, because we’re the ones challenging Labour.” 

Still, some see room for a pact. Ford suggested that Corbyn and Sultana could cover the more populist end of the left, leaving the Greens to mop up the rest. “There’s no particular reason why they can’t work out their differences and divide the cake up between them,” he said. 

Zack Polanski, who running in the Greens leadership race, seemed to indicate he’s open to such an idea, posting on X that “anyone who wants to take on the Tories, Reform and this failing Labour government is a friend of mine.” 

Speaking to POLITICO, Polanski said he’s open to working “with anyone who shares [his] values and the Green Party’s values of environmental, social, racial and economic justice” — but said the party does not have “time for steering groups and management meetings and governance processes of new parties — the Green Party exists and is growing.”