Bitcoin hit its new ATH without fresh supply, forcing buyers to chase dormant coins

Bitcoin didn’t reach its new ATH with widespread coin movement or a surge in recycled supply. The rally came as large portions of Bitcoin’s UTXO set continued to age, locking up liquidity instead of distributing it.

Between Feb. 28 and May 28, the share of the UTXO set classified as long-term (outputs older than 6 months) increased by 3.79 percentage points, reaching 73.38%. This increase in dormancy followed the fastest pace of price appreciation since the last quarter of 2024. It showed that much of the demand behind the rally was absorbed without triggering large-scale profit realization.

The most pronounced structural shift occurred in the 1-month to 3-month cohort, which fell by 4.68 percentage points. These UTXOs, mainly originating from February and early March accumulation, did not recycle into younger bands through exchange transfers. Instead, they matured into the 3-month to 6-month bracket, which gained 1.97 percentage points to become the fastest-growing slice of the set.

The adjacent 6-month to 12-month and 12-month to 18-month groups also expanded, adding 1.84 and 1.24 percentage points, respectively. These increases trace back to coins accumulated in late 2024, now comfortably aging into deeper dormancy. The structural implication is clear: few buyers from the previous two quarters have exited, and many are now long-term participants by on-chain definition.

Short-term churn remained low throughout. UTXOs less than one day old hovered near 1%, a level that barely changed even as Bitcoin added more than $23,000. Same-week and one-week-to-one-month outputs rose slightly, gaining a combined 0.90 percentage points. But these increases were modest, pointing to marginal growth in new buyers rather than speculative turnover.

Cohorts from the 2021–2023 cycle showed more mixed behavior. UTXOs aged between two and seven years contracted by 1.12 percentage points, with net outflows from the 2-year to 3-year and 5-year to 7-year buckets. These holders showed signs of selective spending, possibly to capture profits near the ATH. However, the adjustment was limited, and the effect on aggregate dormancy was minimal.

Notably, the oldest UTXOs, those over seven years old, increased their share by 0.42 percentage points. These outputs, unspent since before the 2017 bull run, grew in absolute and relative terms, showing the long-term conviction of early holders.

Ratio of the total value of UTXOs by age from March 1 to May 28, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

A deeper look at correlation scores reinforces this interpretation. The 6-month to 12-month and 7-year to 10-year bands exhibited strong positive correlations with price (ρ =0.78 and ρ =0.87, respectively). These bands moved up alongside Bitcoin, reflecting dormancy growth as the price increased. Meanwhile, the 2-year to 3-year and the 5-year to 7-year bands moved inversely with price (ρ =−0.90 and ρ =−0.86), confirming that older holders from these cohorts were net distributors into strength.

The price rally was met with structural aging across the UTXO set rather than rotation into younger buckets. This suggests a market that absorbed inflows without drawing out a large volume of existing supply. Spot buyers were likely forced to bid into limited availability, compressing float and creating a feedback loop of demand-driven momentum.

Net aging also acts as a cushion against volatility. With over 73% of Bitcoin’s UTXO set now older than six months, most supply is slowly becoming functionally illiquid. This reduces downside pressure during drawdowns and contributes to lower exchange inventory levels, creating conditions that usually favor a continued price appreciation.

The one caveat is the selective spending seen in some mid-term cohorts. While not aggressive, the fact that some 2021–2022 buyers took profits suggests that distribution may become more visible if price moves stall. However, unless short-term UTXOs begin expanding meaningfully, it’s unlikely that these sales will overwhelm spot demand.

The data support a market structure tilted toward accumulation and long-term positioning. As UTXOs age further, the burden of price discovery will continue to fall on marginal inflows rather than recycled coins. That makes every inflow count and keeps the balance of power tilted toward holders who aren’t in a hurry to spend.

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