Bitcoin Exchange Balances Hit 5-Year Low — So Why Isn’t BTC Exploding?

• Market experts have highlighted that the Bitcoin (BTC) balance on exchanges has reached a level not seen since 2019. 
• MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin accumulation is reported to outpace the monthly supply of the asset by miners, “shrinking the supply curve from the outside.”

The Bitcoin (BTC) price made a major move on its daily chart from $94k in an attempt to break the $97k resistance level. However, it lost its steam along the way, falling back to the $96.6k level at press time. According to market data, the asset has managed to record gains on four of the five major trading sessions, rising by 1.5% in the last 24 hours, 3.6% in the last seven days, 14.8% in the last 30 days, and 2.3% from year to date.

While the current price level marks an impressive performance from its 30-day low of $74k, analysts still find Bitcoin undervalued as several key indicators point to an all-time-high level position.

In a recent thread, an X page dedicated to Bitcoin-only financial services, Swan, hinted that the Bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges just hit a five-year low. As detailed in our earlier blog post, this situation historically creates shortages, reduces selling pressure, and triggers a price surge.

Additionally, Swan pointed out the recent 15,000 acquisition of Bitcoin by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, coupled with massive ETF inflows, as featured in our previous news article. However, the impact on the current price is barely felt.

Why is Bitcoin Resisting an Explosion

Explaining why Bitcoin is not yet making any explosive run, Swan pointed out that most of these acquired and withdrawn Bitcoins from exchanges are not actually idle. While some are held passively, others are being actively used in structured products, yield platforms, or even as collateral. According to the analysis, situations like these do not usually trigger a price surge immediately.

Further explaining the nature of the market, Swan highlighted the presence of sellers at all times and in all situations with different purposes. While some are seeking to make short-term gains, others appear as long-term holders. The rest exist as speculators who have little or no idea of the asset they purchased. According to Swan, sellers usually appear in their numbers as the price increases.

Having recognized this, MicroStrategy was reported not to accumulate all at once. Instead, it strategically purchases overtime against the constantly adjusting market. This explains why its $1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin acquisition did not immediately cause a price surge.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s frequent accumulation with cheap debt and relentless capital was hinted to outpace the monthly supply of Bitcoin by miners, which is currently around 13,500 BTC.

Source: Swan

According to Swan, this move compresses the supply of Bitcoin from the outside, making it look like a synthetic halving. As recently mentioned in our news brief, MicroStrategy is aiming for a historic acquisition of $84 billion in Bitcoin.

From sovereigns to retail, access is tightening. But this isn’t a top-down takeover. Bitcoin is still being adopted bottom-up, especially where it’s needed most. Capital is just accelerating the timeline.

Concluding the post, Swan disclosed that the Bitcoin price usually responds “when the demand technically breaks equilibrium.” Also, the chasing of limited Bitcoin by the infinite fiat could “make the next Bitcoin breakout more violent and irreversible.”