Bitcoin bear market OR bear trap? Here’s what your ‘quants’ are saying

Bitcoin’s sustained price above $100,000 was supposed to signal its arrival as a mature institutional asset. Instead, its sudden reversal below that threshold has unsettled traders and revived fears of another crypto winter.

On Nov. 4, Bitcoin briefly dipped to its lowest level since May at $99,075, before recovering to approximately $102,437 as of press time. Despite the price recovery, BTC is still down roughly 3% from the day’s peak of $104,777, according to CryptoSlate data.

This price performance resulted in Bitcoin lagging US Treasuries for the first time this year, erasing one of 2025’s most popular macro trades.

Bitcoin vs US Treasuries Performance (Source: Joe Weisenthal)

Yet analysts say the move reflects a structural reset rather than a systemic collapse.

Why is Bitcoin price falling?

Long-term holders have played a significant role in driving the flagship digital asset’s downward trend by realizing profits at record rates.

Bitcoin analyst James Van Straten noted that this cohort has sold more than 362,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately 3,100 BTC per day, since July. According to him, that pace has quickened over the past three weeks to nearly 9,000 BTC daily.

Another analyst, Johan Bergman, suggested the total could be even higher. He calculated that the LTH cohort’s cumulative realized profits increased from $600 billion in June to $754 billion as of today.

According to him:

“Assuming they sold at an average price of $110,000, that’s about $72,000 in profit per coin. So, $154B / $72K ≈ 2.1 million coins sold.”

Data from James Check at CheckOnChain further reveals that Bitcoin currently faces $34 billion in monthly sell-side pressure as older coins return to exchanges.

That inflow has largely offset weakening demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries, some of which have shifted focus to share buybacks instead of new crypto allocations..

Bitcoin Capital Flows (Source: CheckOnChain)

At the same time, speculative activity is also fading in the market.

Data from Glassnode shows that the funding rates for perpetual futures have decreased by 62% since August, from approximately $338 million to $127 million per month, reflecting lower leverage.

Bitcoin Perpetual Funding Rate (Source: Glassnode)

The firm stated:

“This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.”

Meanwhile, the fading enthusiasm comes amid tightening global liquidity.

The prolonged US government shutdown, the joint-longest on record, has immobilized roughly $150 billion in the Treasury General Account, removing liquidity that circulates typically through risk assets.

BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes noted that since the debt ceiling increase in July, dollar liquidity has declined by approximately 8%, while Bitcoin has decreased by 5%, reinforcing the correlation between the two.

$95K becomes the market’s stress point

Due to this wave of selling activity, Check estimates that 57% of all dollars invested in Bitcoin are now in loss. His cost-basis model, which values each coin at its last on-chain transaction, reflects what he calls the market’s recency bias.

He wrote:

“We price every coin when it last transacted onchain, and this helps us interpret sentiment based on our recency bias We don’t think about our coins from prior cycles as much as the ones we bought 3-days ago.”

Considering this, he pointed out that roughly 63% of capital invested carries a cost basis above $95,000, making that level the key psychological and structural support.

Bitcoin Invested Value by Cohort. (Source: CheckOnChain)

He also noted that unrealized losses total nearly $20 billion, or about 3% of market capitalization. Historically, bear markets have begun once unrealized losses exceed 10%.

Therefore, if prices drop below $95,000, he anticipates a deterioration in sentiment. Prior corrections in 2024 and early 2025 stabilized when losses reached 7–8% of market cap. Anything deeper could signal that a new bear phase is underway.

Check noted:

“Obviously nobody wants to make that call AFTER the price has already fallen, which is why $95k is a critical line in the sand to hold, as it deteriorates below.”

Is this the start of a bear market?

Industry analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin’s recent pullback marks the beginning of a new downtrend or simply a mid-cycle reset.

Check said:

“There has been a tremendous rotation of coins in 2025, and a lions share of it has occurred above $95k. We don’t want to see the price fall below $95k, but I also expect the bulls to mount one hell of a fight to defend it. Prepare for a bear but dont believe the doomers.”

However, in a recent note called “Hallelujah,” Hayes frames the decline as a function of temporary dollar scarcity rather than structural failure.

According to him, the heavy issuance of Treasury securities has siphoned liquidity from the money markets. However, he believes this dynamic will reverse once policymakers reopen the government and resume balance-sheet expansion.

He wrote:

“If the current money market conditions persist, the treasury debt pile grows exponentially, the SRF balance must grow as the lender of last resort. As SRF balances grow, the amount of fiat dollars in the world expands as well. This phenomenon will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.”

Meanwhile, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, shares Hayes’s long-term optimism but frames it within Bitcoin’s evolving maturity.

On CNBC, he described the recent downturn as “a tale of two markets,” where retail traders capitulate amid leverage washouts while institutions quietly increase exposure.

Considering this, Hougan stressed that BTC’s risk-adjusted outlook remains unmatched, but the days of 100x yearly returns are gone. He added:

“We’re unlikely to see 100x returns in a single year. But there is still massive upside once the distribution phase is complete…[However, we still] believe bitcoin will reach $1.3 million by 2035, and I personally think we’re being conservative.”

At the same time, he believes BTC’s era of 1% allocation is over as its lower volatility makes it more attractive to hold.

Hougan concluded:

“As an allocator, my response to this dynamic would not be to sell the asset—after all, we forecast bitcoin to be the best-performing large asset in the world over the next decade—but rather, to buy more of it. Put differently, lower volatility means it’s safer to own more of something.”

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