As the Netherlands moves to the center, Brussels is watching

Catherine de Vries is Generali chair in European policies and professor at Bocconi University in Milan.

Last week, Dutch voters rewarded the political center.

The centrist-liberal D66 and center-right Christian Democratic Appeal benefited from a gowing appetite for stability, while the race for the largest party ended in a photo finish between D66 and Geert Wilders’s far-right Freedom Party. With no group receiving more than a fifth of the vote, upcoming coalition talks promise to be complicated, and a majority government before the holidays looks unlikely.

As with so many recent elections across the continent, the EU was again the elephant in the room. Bloc-wide issues barely featured in the campaign ahead of the vote, yet the result could have far-reaching consequences for the Netherlands’ role in Brussels.

What is already clear is that the Dutch electorate voted far more pro-European than it did in 2023. Indeed, it seems the Euroskepticism that once dominated the political mood has given way to a quiet mandate for cooperation and reform — an unmistakably pro-EU signal to The Hague.

And if D66 leader Rob Jetten can succeed in becoming the party’s first prime minister, it would mark a decisive shift in the country’s policy toward the bloc.

D66 has long been the most outspokenly pro-EU party across the Dutch political spectrum. Speaking to POLITICO after the election, Jetten argued that the Netherlands should use its veto power far less often and instead “say yes to cooperation more often.”

“Europe risks stagnation if we fail to deepen integration. The Netherlands helped found the Union, now we should help shape its future,” he said.

These words signal a clear break from the previous government of technocrat Dick Schoof, which had been largely invisible in Brussels. As Dutch broadcaster NOS recently reported, the country’s influence in the EU has “withered.” Or, as one senior EU diplomat bluntly put it: “No one listens to the Dutch anymore.”

Schoof’s administration had begun with high expectations — exemptions on asylum, nitrogen and nature rules, and a lower contribution to the EU budget — but the reality in Brussels proved unforgiving. The Netherlands often found itself isolated, and its attempts to secure “opt-outs” were quietly abandoned.

A Jetten premiership could reverse this pattern. Though similarly pragmatic, even Schoof’s predecessor Mark Rutte was ultimately cautious, wary of treaty reform and collective borrowing. But Jetten signals a readiness to go further, as D66 sees the Netherlands as a natural bridge-builder and a key player in European integration.

Moreover, part of the Schoof government’s weakness was its lack of European experience. A technocrat without party backing, he struggled to build political capital in Brussels. Jetten, by contrast, is well-connected. Like Rutte, he belongs to Renew Europe group, the liberal alliance associated with French President Emmanuel Macron — a link that once amplified Dutch influence beyond its size.

And if D66 leader Rob Jetten can succeed in becoming the party’s first prime minister, it would mark a decisive shift in the country’s policy toward the bloc. | Pierre Crom/Getty Images

Of course, today even this network has become fragile. Macron’s domestic troubles have diminished his clout in Brussels, and with it, the gravitational pull of the liberal camp.

Meanwhile, Brussels itself is more fragmented than ever. European politics has become a patchwork of competing national priorities, with southern members demanding more collective investment, northern countries — including the Netherlands — still preaching fiscal discipline, eastern members prioritizing defense and security, and western governments focused on industrial policy and competitiveness.

Then, there are the external pressures to consider: The U.S. expects Europe to shoulder more of its own defense, while China is forcing the bloc to rethink its economic dependencies.

In such a fragmented landscape, speaking with one European voice is hard enough — acting in unison is harder still.

Ultimately, though, how the next Dutch government positions itself in this European maze, and Jetten’s ability to deliver, will largely depend on domestic politics and the coalition he can forge.

The irony here is that if the center-left Green–Labor alliance or the Christian Democrats had emerged as the largest party, alignment with Europe’s dominant political currents might have been easier, finding natural allies in Spain’s Pedro Sánchez or German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. But with D66 securing less than 20 percent of the vote, Jetten will have to govern in a broad coalition that includes parties far less enthusiastic about Europe.

Still, even a Jetten-led coalition could boost Dutch influence precisely because it would span multiple European party families at once. In Brussels, where informal networks often matter just as much as votes, that could give the Netherlands renewed diplomatic weight.

Facing the strategic dilemma of reconciling domestic compromise with European ambition, Jetten’s political style — pragmatic, conciliatory and consensus-driven — may also prove to be an asset here. During election-night coverage, one journalist even called him “the new Rutte” due to their shared instinct for timing and coalition-building. But Jetten couples this with a much clearer European vision.

In his post-election remarks to POLITICO, the D66 leader left little room for doubt: “Europe must evolve into a serious democratic world power, with the means and authority to do what citizens expect — protect our borders from Putin, grow our economy and safeguard the climate,” he said.

For years now, Dutch politics have been oscillating between pragmatic euro-realism and latent Euroskepticism. But this election may finally signal the pendulum’s slow return toward a more pro-Europe center, rooted in the quiet understanding that the Netherlands and the EU rise and fall together.