Altcoin Season Could Start This October—Here’s Why Smart Money Is Watching ADA, ETH, and More

• The brutal rally in Bitcoin, soaring past $100K, has left altcoins mostly in the shadows, with only fleeting spikes in March and November 2024.
• Analysts like Crypto Decoder now suggest that October could mark the début of a broader altcoin resurgence.

Right now, Bitcoin (BTC) holds the spotlight, making up 64% of the entire crypto market’s value, that’s nearly two-thirds of all the money in crypto sitting in BTC alone. Historically, when Bitcoin’s dominance climbs this high and then starts to dip, it’s often a sign that money is beginning to flow into altcoins. But we’re not quite there yet.

The Altcoin Season Index is sitting at just 28 out of 100, which tells us we’re still very much in Bitcoin’s territory. A full-blown altseason? It hasn’t shown up, at least, not yet.

This aligns with a recent post by crypto analyst Crypto Decoder, who commented,

Altseason is delayed this cycle. Only a handful of altcoins are pumping while the rest continue bleeding against Bitcoin. Just dropped a new video breaking down the key macro indicators to watch for a reversal, and when our alt bags might finally pump.

Bitcoin has had its fair share of rallies. On December 4, 2024, it broke through the $100,000 mark for the first time since launch. Then, in January, Bitcoin climbed higher, hitting an all-time high of $109,000 right around the time of President Donald Trump’s inauguration. Bitcoin surged again in May, reaching approximately $111,970 and pushing further to its all-time high of $112,000 yesterday.

Alt Season Still on Hold

Crypto Decoder offered his take on the altcoin markets in a YouTube video. So far this year, only two brief rallies have materialized, and they might feel like little more than crumbs. The first altcoin rally of this cycle showed up in March 2024, riding the wave of halving hype. The second came later, in November and December, sparked by all the noise around the elections.

In 2017, the total altcoin market cap didn’t just grow, it skyrocketed by 285×. Bitcoin’s dominance, which had been towering at around 95%, dropped all the way down to 35%. Decoder says: “That’s the kind of run where even ‘GCR’ would have printed money without needing any finance insider plagues.” Given that, it’s entirely fair to ask: when will our altbags finally catch fire?

Decoder then explains that one macroeconomic chart that keeps standing out to him is the comparison between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the altcoin market cap, excluding the top 10 coins. The top half of this chart tracks the DXY, while the bottom half shows the performance of lesser-known altcoins. What he’s noticed is a consistent pattern across previous crypto cycles: when the dollar peaks and starts to weaken, altcoins tend to take off.

During the 2017 bull run, a sharp drop in the DXY lined up with the 285× explosion in the altcoin market. Similarly, in 2021, another DXY top was followed by a 17× rally in altcoins over the following year.  Currently, the DXY is testing critical support levels, having bounced down from its previous high around 109.

If it breaks that trendline and rolls into a sustained downtrend, and if the Fed confirms a pivot to easing or unveils fresh liquidity measures, Decoder believes we could see the same explosive environments as 2017 or 2021 in the Q4 of the year.

Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) are showing early signs of strength. ETH has rallied 6.95% over the past week and is currently trading at $2,644. In the last 24 hours alone, it’s up another 3.8%, with trading volume ticking up 17% to reach $19 billion.

Cardano’s in the green too, ADA has gained 6.7% over the week and 4.67% in the past day, now sitting at $0.6073. If the altcoin season does arrive, analysts see ETH potentially pushing toward $4,000, while ADA could aim for a new all-time high around $4.