5 clear signals that will prove if the Bitcoin bull run is still alive

Crypto Twitter is filled with claims that “everyone is buying Bitcoin”, from Michael Saylor and BlackRock to entire countries and even banks.

Yet despite the accumulation narratives, Bitcoin’s price has slipped sharply, breaking below key levels as ETF flows turned negative.

The contradiction between bullish headlines and falling prices emphasizes a crucial point: in markets driven by liquidity and marginal flow, who’s actually buying, and when, matters far more than who says they are.

Bitcoin fell through $106,400 as spot ETF flows turned negative over four consecutive sessions. The shift came as BlackRock’s IBIT logged redemptions over the last four days, totaling $714.8 million, removing a significant source of daily demand right as a widely watched cycle pivot gave way.

According to Farside Investors, the outflows of $88.1 million, $290.9 million, $149.3 million, and then $186.5 million coincided with the breakdown. They forced selling by authorized participants who redeemed shares for underlying Bitcoin and offloaded them into the market.

Thus, the net flow flipped. When creations slow and redemptions rise across the U.S. spot ETF complex, the daily bid that helped absorb volatility turns into a source of supply.

Mid-October saw stretches of net outflows across digital asset funds as Bitcoin battled to stay above $106,400. While there were brief inflow days late in the month, the most recent run tilted back into the red, a pattern that aligns with the IBIT prints captured above.

The mechanical impact matters because ETF flow translates into spot buys or sells, and the timing overlaps with a break of a level that many traders use to distinguish a late-cycle pullback from a trend resumption.

Derivatives added pressure.

The CME three-month futures premium has cooled to roughly 4 to 5 percent annualized over the back half of the year, curbing carry-trade incentives that pull institutional basis demand into rallies.

At the same time, funding on perpetual swaps turned softer or negative at points, a setup that accelerates down moves when longs de-risk and liquidations cluster.

In these conditions, slow, scheduled spot accumulation from corporates or sovereign entities does not offset forced unwinds on leverage or redemptions on regulated products that translate directly to spot sells.

Macro has not eased the path. The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded toward the 98-100 area in November after a weak first half, while the U.S. 10-year yield, near 4.1 percent, keeps real rates restrictive.

A firmer dollar and tight real yields tend to compress global liquidity and weigh on long-duration risk, and bitcoin continues to respond to those impulses at tactical horizons. When flows are roughly flat, the dollar often decides whether a bounce holds or fades.

Supply narratives also persist. The Mt. Gox rehabilitation timeline was extended again to October 31, 2026, following partial distributions earlier this year, which keeps a recurring overhang in focus, even if actual sales are staggered.

Periodic trustee updates and wallet movements have repeatedly tightened risk tolerance on rebounds. Miners remain another valve.

Post-halving economics has also left hashprice near cycle lows relative to the spring spike. That backdrop creates ongoing incentives for treasury monetization on stress days, which can align with soft funding to add procyclical pressure.

Bitcoin hashprice (Source: Luxor)

The cycle framing ties these pieces together.

I recently called $126,000 as the cycle high and $106,400 as the bull-bear pivot.

The price just lost that pivot as the ETF bid turned into net selling, while basis stayed subdued and funding cooled.

Interestingly, common on-chain and cycle monitors, such as the 2-Year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL, have failed to reach euphoria this cycle, even near the highs. Metrics are already slipping toward distribution and mean reversion as flow support has faded.

This could mean the bull run will be extended this cycle, or it could represent diminishing returns when compared to prior cycle transitions.

RHODL Ratio (Source: Bitcoin Magazine)

These tools are not standalone timing devices. Still, when they align with daily flow inflection and macro stiffness, traders tend to withdraw liquidity, which amplifies the impact of incremental sells.

Why is the price falling if BlackRock, corporates, or countries are buying? The flow math provides a direct response.

Nation-state purchases are episodic and small compared to daily turnover, and corporate treasuries operate on idiosyncratic schedules.

Banks often facilitate client activity rather than deploying balance-sheet risk daily. None of those actors offset a week where issuers that normally create shares instead redeem, funding drifts toward or below zero, and the dollar firms. The marginal seller rules the tape in that mix.

The near-term path depends on whether spot creations reappear and the basis expands. A continued run of net outflow days from the largest U.S. spot ETFs, especially IBIT and FBTC, with CME basis pinned near or below 5 percent annualized and funding flat to negative, would keep the market in a distribution phase.

Under that setup, failing to reclaim $106,400 leaves $100,000 as the battleground and opens the mid to high $90,000s on further red sessions, particularly if the macro stays tight.

A more neutral outcome, with oscillating but smaller flows, a basis stabilizing in the 5-7 percent zone, and a range-bound dollar around 97-100, argues for digestion between $100,000 and $106,000 while liquidity rebuilds.

The upside case requires a return of multi-day net creations in the $300 to $800 million range across the complex, based on pushing above 8 to 10 percent, and a softer dollar.

That mix would allow a retest of $110,000 to $115,000 and reopen the debate around the cycle top if flows persist.

One way to track the state of play is to focus on daily issuer-level flows, then layer in derivatives and macroeconomic factors.

How to tell if the Bitcoin bull run is still going

1. ETF Flows (Farside data): Sustained multi-day creations from major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s FBTC signal renewed demand. Continued redemptions or flat prints, on the other hand, confirm the bid has turned into supply.
2. Fund Flows (CoinShares report): Broad inflows across the digital asset fund universe, especially when led by Bitcoin, indicate institutional rotation back into risk. Persistent outflows or concentration in defensive alt products point to capital retreat.
3. Leverage Conditions (CME basis and funding): A rising basis (above ~7–8% annualized) and positive, stable funding suggest appetite for directional risk, typical in active bull phases. A flat or negative setup implies deleveraging and distribution.
4. Macro Liquidity (DXY and 10-year yield): A weaker dollar (DXY < 97) and easing yields open liquidity channels that historically underpin bullish momentum. Strength in either metric tightens liquidity and puts pressure on the crypto beta.
5. Mining Supply Pressure (Hashprice trends): Rising hashprice and stable or falling miner selling will hint that the market is absorbing new supply comfortably, bullish behavior. Collapsing hashprice or spikes in miner transfers to exchanges often mark stress points within uptrends.

The last four trading days flipped the spot-ETF bid into a sustained net seller, exactly as Bitcoin lost its pivot. With CME basis subdued and funding soft, the marginal price was driven by de-risking rather than dip-buying.

A firmer USD and sticky real yields rounded out a flow-led break, not a referendum on long-term adoption. Until daily creations return and $ 106,400 is reclaimed, this remains a distribution-and-digest phase within the broader cycle.

Lastly, unless the historic Bitcoin cycle pattern has been disrupted by the influx of corporate treasuries and ETF flows, then Father Time has already spoken.

If Bitcoin were to reach a new all-time high by the end of the year or in 2026, it would mark the latest cycle high ever.

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